BIM将会在更多项目上使用的预测是错误的

Tuesday,November 5th, 2013

For the fourth year in a row, we surveyed people in theMEP industry about their use of BIM. Next month we will release the fullresults from our survey. For now, we want to focus on one finding inparticular, because we think it is the most important result.

In our originalsurvey in 2010, we asked respondents to make a prediction: “Three years fromnow, what percentage of your projects will include 3D collision detection?”This year, we asked respondents a related question: “Today, what percentage ofyour projects include 3D collision detection?” We can now finally evaluate theaccuracy of the predictions.

The result: far fewer projects today include3D collision detection than people predicted 3 years ago.

The graph below compares the answers to the two questions. The answer to the question is on the x-axis. The percentage ofrespondents who gave each answer is on the y-axis.

For example, on the left side of the graph is thepercentage of respondents who answered the survey question with 0%. In 2010,about 1% of respondents expected none of their projects to include 3D collisiondetection. In 2013, over 20% of respondents said that none of their currentprojects include 3D collision detection.

On the right side of the graph is the percentage ofrespondents who answered the survey questions with 100%. In 2010, over 30% ofthe respondents expected all of their projects to include 3D collisiondetection. In 2013, a little more than 5% of respondents said that all of theircurrent projects include 3D collision detection.

As you can tell from the graph, the percentage of projects this year that include 3D collisiondetection is far less than the percentage predicted three years ago.

In addition to expectations, we have also tracked the useof 3D collision detection over the last three years. Even if use of 3Dcollision detection did not match expectations from 2010, has use changed atall since then? The next graph displays the use of 3D collision detection forthe different years of our survey.

All four lineshave a very similar shape. The use of 3D collision detection has not changed inthe last three years.

The above results raise two interesting questions

Question 1: Why is there such a disconnectbetween expectations and reality? All the discussion in the industry is abouthow BIM is the future for all projects. But that has been the discussion for atleast three years. In that time, nothing has changed significantly. What ishappening that causes everyone to expect BIM usage to increase in the future?Why has the change in BIM usage not met expectations?

Question 2: What is going to be differentover the next three years as compared to the last three years? Contrary toeveryone’s expectations, BIM has not recently taken off. If BIM is to becomemore common in the future, something is going to need to change. Will softwareimprove more over the next three years than it did over the last three? Willbuilding owners be more willing to spend extra money on design to include BIM?Will BIM become cheaper than alternatives?

Our best guess is that the disconnect is caused by thegeneral disconnect between architects and engineers. The two professionalgroups see the world differently. For architects, BIM has obvious and immediatebenefits. They assume engineers will gain the same benefits. The reality isthat the easy benefits that architects receive–such as 3D modeling–are nearlyuseless for engineers. Architects are pressuring engineers to use BIM, whichcauses engineers to expect to be using it in the future. But architects arealso pressuring engineers to produce designs faster and cheaper. When a choicebetween faster and cheaper versus BIM has to be made, BIM loses. We do not see any signs to indicate that the

industrywill change such that BIM will suddenly become more popular than it is now. BIMwill continue to be used on some projects that can afford large design fees.BIM will continue to be used on complex projects where the benefits are largeenough to exceed the costs. For the vast majority of projects, BIM will continue to be a luxury that building owners are not willing to pay for.